Exclusive: Blocking Trump could hurt Republicans in election - Reuters/Ipsos poll

(Reuters) - A third of Republican voters who
support Donald Trump could turn their backs on
their party in November's presidential election if he
is denied the nomination in a contested convention,
according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.

The results are bad news for Trump's rivals as well
as party elites opposed to the real estate
billionaire, suggesting that an alternative
Republican nominee for the Nov. 8 presidential race
would have a tougher road against the Democrats.
"If it’s a close election, this is devastating news" for
the Republicans, said Donald Green, an expert on
election turnout at Columbia University.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted March 30 to April
8 asked Trump’s Republican supporters two
questions: if Trump wins the most delegates in the
primaries but loses the nomination, what would
they do on Election Day, and how would it impact
their relationship with the Republican Party?
Sixty-six percent said they would vote for the
candidate who eventually wins the nomination,
while the remaining third were split between a
number of alternatives such as not voting,
supporting a third-party candidate, and switching
parties and voting for the Democratic nominee.
Meanwhile, 58 percent said they would remain with
the Republican Party. Another 16 percent said they
would leave it, and 26 percent said they did not
know what they would do with their registration.
The online poll of 468 Republican Trump supporters
has a credibility interval of 5.3 percentage points.

Trump has topped the national polls throughout
most of the race for the Republican nomination,
and has won more delegates than any other
Republican so far. A Reuters/Ipsos online poll from
April 4-8 showed that 42 percent of Republicans
support Trump, compared with 32 percent for U.S.
Senator Ted Cruz of Texas and 20 percent for Ohio
Governor John Kasich.

Cruz and Kasich have both said their paths to
victory rely on winning at least enough votes to
block an outright win for Trump and force a
decision at the Republican National Convention in
Cleveland.